Elizabeth Morgan | Foreign trade outlook and agenda for 2023
Well, we are into the New Year, 2023, but the economic outlook is not so good. COVID-19 is still with us; the war in Ukraine continues; increasing oil prices; inflation and interest rates remain concerns; as well as the impact of climate change and other environmental issues.
Countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) remain in the struggle to recover from the global pandemic and its economic fallout, even as the figures for tourist arrivals are improving. These countries need to see real growth in exports of goods and services, and expansion in their economies.
The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, has warned that in 2023, a third of the global economy will be in recession and it will most likely be a tougher year than 2022, especially for developing economies.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) are predicting that global trade will slow in 2023. The World Health Organization (WHO) states that progress has been made in stemming the COVID-19 pandemic, but notes that new cases and deaths from the virus are still being recorded on a daily basis. Especially with the situation in China and what seems to be a new sub-variant, the WHO continues to urge countries to be vigilant and to take the necessary precautions. Countries in CARICOM and in Africa have the lowest levels of vaccinations.
The incoming chair of CARICOM, the Prime Minister of The Bahamas, Hon Philip Davis, in his New Year statement, has noted that 2023 will mark the 50th Anniversary of the establishment of CARICOM, as well as of his own country’s independence. His view is that regional cooperation is required for recovery from the pandemic; to assist Haiti; address climate change; develop renewable energy sources; improve agriculture and food security by 2025; advocate for debt relief and reform of multilateral financial institutions; and establish a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index for fairer access to concessional development funding. CARICOM intends to work more closely with the international community to achieve these goals. However, note one of CARICOM’s anomalies, which is that The Bahamas is not participating in the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME).
THE FOREIGN TRADE AGENDA
As customary, there will be the major trade and trade-related international meetings. To give an overview for 2023, the World Economic Forum will return to Davos in Switzerland, January 16-20, under the theme ‘Cooperation in a Fragmented World’, bringing together world leaders of governments, private sector and civil society to reflect on the multiple crises besetting the world economy and consider solutions. The Group of Seven (G7) Summit will be in Japan in May and the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in India in September. Hopefully, the Caribbean will have an opportunity to present its views.
The 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly and related meetings will commence in New York from September 12. The UN Sustainable Development Summit will be held September 19-20. The UN Conference on Climate Change (COP28) will be held in the United Arab Emirates in December.
On the specific trade front, Barbados remains the chair of UNCTAD until the 16th session in about 2025. So, I assume that Prime Minister Mia Mottley will continue to participate in specific meetings. The WTO, with its customary work schedule, will begin preparations for its 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) to be held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in February 2024. Jamaica no longer hold the chair of the Organization of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS) group in Geneva.
For OACPS, it will be having its usual meetings of the OACPS Council and the joint OACPS-EU Council. What I will be keeping an ear for is whether there will be agreement on signing of the post-Cotonou Agreement and on a venue for the signing. The related Caribbean Forum (CARIFORUM) will continue to have Antigua and Barbuda as Chair until July, when The Bahamas assumes the post. An outstanding meeting has been related to the review of the Economic Partnership Agreement. In keeping with tradition, there should be a meeting between the Caribbean and the United Kingdom, which should be hosted in the Caribbean.
ASSESSMENT OF CARICOM’S 50 YEARS OF EXISTENCE
For CARICOM, as well as the regular meetings of the Council on Trade and Economic Development (COTED) and the Council for Foreign and Community Relations (COFCOR), the 35th Intersessional Meeting of Heads will be held in The Bahamas in February, and the 44th regular Heads of Government Conference should be in Dominica.
As CARICOM Day is July 4, CARICOM’s 50th anniversary will be commemorated at this 44th session. As should be known, these are the meetings at which CARICOM leaders address intra-regional issues, including the CSME implementation, and prepare for participation in international meetings. It is always possible that there will be other bilateral, regional and multilateral meetings involving the region and its members.
I hope that the opportunity will be taken by governments, regional institutions, the media and academia to undertake a proper assessment of CARICOM’s 50 years of existence. Is CARICOM, as an integration movement, essential to regional development to addressing current crises, as the Bahamian Prime Minister has stated? The 50th anniversary should not be just a ceremonial event.
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